Editor’s note: This post originally appeared on David’s Tent, a ministry of Israeli believers Avner and Rachel Boskey. The Boskey’s have ministered at Tabernacle of David, and we consider them trustworthy and Biblically sound.
At approximately 05:00 hours on Friday April 19, 2024, IAF drones attacked a radar base in Isfahan, Iran (75 miles/120 km south of Nantaz, Iran’s main nuclear site; and 274 miles/442 km. south of Tehran). This is a developing story, and it may end up being covered in a possible fourth newsletter.
- Our first of three newsletters dealt with Iranian background, strategic planning militarily and diplomatically, and unsettling historical parallels going back to 2020. Part Two delves into battle details – the blow-by-blow description of the Iranian attack, as well as the amazing counter-offensive by Israel and her allies against the massive barrage of Iranian drones, ballistic rockets and cruise missiles – with a 99% successful destruction rate. Part Three will present what American and Israeli strategic perspectives are about the situation, and what their realpolitik goals are for the future. Part Four (projected) will deal with issues surrounding Israel’s current military response on Iranian/Syrian military/strategic sites.
“I love it when a plan comes together” – Hannibal Smith, ‘The A-Team’
Part One of this three-part newsletter reveals from open-source material that Iran’s attack of April 13-14, 2024 on Israel had been discussed, pre-planned and finessed with America’s State Department, intelligence and military leaders prior to the first shots being fired. This joint planning and execution involving both countries’ top leadership had a precedent – the Iran-US coordinated ballistic missile attack on American troops stationed at Ayn al-Asad Airbase in Iraq on January 8, 2020.
Between April 4-11, 2024, the US top leadership was drawing up plans in consultation with Iran, contacting allies (though Israel seems to have relegated to the bottom of the list) and pre-positioning intelligence and military assets in preparation. Israel was made aware of the coming strike approximately three days before April 13. CENTCOM Commander General Michael E. Kurilla touched down in Israel on April 11 to meet with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi. The subject of their meetings: “rising regional challenges as a result of Iranian aggression via proxies.”
According to American sources, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates shared intelligence with the United States (and through the USA, to Israel) that helped facilitate the successful interception of many Iranian missiles and drones. Jordan also informed the United States that Jordan would assist in intercepting Iranian airborne armaments.
Post-Sabbath onslaught
Just before the start of the Iranian attack, extensive disruptions in GPS systems kicked in throughout Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Syria, Lebanon and Israel.
On Saturday evening, April 13, 2024, at approximately 23:30 Israel Daylight Time (IDT), IAF (Israel Air Force) F-15 and F-16 fighter jets took to the skies in pre-planned formations, awaiting whatever Iran would send into their killing zone. At this time also, Iran and Yemen launched their attack on Israel, named Operation True Promise (Persian: وعده صادق: va’de-ye sādeq), with the code name Ya Rasul Allah (یارسولالله(ص)).
At 00:30 IDT, Israel’s airspace was closed to international and domestic flights. Ramon Airport also was closed to traffic. A short time before that, Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon announced the temporary closure of their airspace. Later on, Jordan publicly denied that it has closed its airspace.
At 01:32 IDT, two Iraqi security sources said that dozens of drones had been spotted flying from Iran toward Israel over Iraqi airspace.
Between 01:42 and 02:00 IDT, the following attacks took place:
- Iran fired between 110-130 ballistic missiles at Israel. These included the Shahab-3 and the Emad models.
- Iran fired 185 military attack drones in three waves: a combination of the drone models Shahed 136 and Shahed 238 jet drone.
Within a few seconds of the firings, air-raid sirens were sounded throughout the country of Israel, including in the Beer Sheva and Negev regions, Jerusalem, Judea, Samaria, the Golan Heights, etc. At the same time, Hezbollah launched from Lebanon about 25 rockets aimed at bases in the Golan Heights.
The following map shows the approximate flight patterns of Iranian and Yemeni attack aircraft:
War in the heavenlies
The IDF states that 25 of the 30 to 36 cruise missiles fired by Yemen were shot down by Israeli jets outside the borders of Israel, and that all the rest of the cruise missiles (5-11 in number) were similarly intercepted, but by other air forces.
According to the Wall Street Journal, roughly 50% of the 110-130 Iranian ballistic missiles either failed to launch or crashed before reaching their target. But what happened to the 50% that were able to make their way toward Israel (55 to 65 in number)?
The IDF launched interceptors at the ballistic missiles which were approaching Israel by way of the Syrian Golan Heights, attempting to shoot them out of the skies. Syria’s army attempted to block these IAF interceptors, in a vain effort to help the Iranian drones and missiles to reach their targets in Israel.
What exactly were these ballistic missiles targeting? Based partially on Iranian information shared with Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and the US during the previous week, the target estimates were as follows: a military base on Mount Hermon in the Golan Heights; the Nevatim and the Ramon Airbases (both in the Negev); and quite possibly the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center (KAMAG) near Dimona.
Operating in the Yemeni theater, USAF forces wiped out a ballistic missile on its launcher vehicle and seven drones on the ground before the Houthis were able to be fire them.
A source close to the Iraqi government told The National that dozens of the weapons (ballistic missiles and drones) were intercepted by USAF in the skies above Baghdad, in Najaf (160 km south of Baghdad), in Western Iraq and in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of Northern Iraq. Wreckage of a drone was later found in an open area in the Najaf Governate.
US anti-missile systems at USAF Ayn al-Asad Airbase (shades of January 2020!) in Iraq’s western Anbar province played a key role. At least one Iranian ballistic missile was shot down by a Patriot battery in the Kurdish northern region, landing in the Soran district outside of the regional capital Erbil, 400 kilometers away.
CENTCOM (US Central Command) said on Monday April 15, 2024, that its aircraft “successfully engaged and destroyed” more than 80 attack drones and at least six ballistic missiles. The operation was supported by US European Command destroyers, which deployed the AEGIS missile defense system to shoot down at least three Iranian ballistic missiles.
Shooting down the Prince of Persia
A stratified multi-air defense system combination of Israeli, American, Jordanian, British and French jet fighters (equipped with cannons, air-to-air rockets like the Sidewinder, the Python 3/4/5, etc.) were able to destroy most of the Iranian ballistic missiles and drones, As well, the IAF Arrow 2 and David’s Sling anti-missile system were in use, contributing their ‘Star Wars’ technology to the battle.
US warplanes and British RAF Typhoon jets shot down drones over the Iraq-Syria border, as UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has confirmed. Jordan also intercepted dozens of drones in its airspace, on the east side of the Jordan Valley and near the Jordanian-Syrian border. Jordanian jets downed dozens of Iranian drones flying across northern and central Jordan heading to Israel. Jordan allowed the U.S. to use its airspace to shoot down incoming Iranian threats. An Israeli military official said late on Monday April 15, that Jordan also allowed IDF jets to intercept Iranian missiles and drones over its territory, during Sunday’s attack on Israel.
Saudi Arabia assisted Israel and the United States during the Iranian attack on Israel, by providing, along with the UAE, “intelligence that contributed to an overwhelmingly successful defensive response.” That report added that the Saudis stopped short of allowing the U.S. to operate from Saudi airspace.
All of the drones fired at Israel as well as all of the cruise missiles were intercepted outside Israel’s borders, as well the approximately 40 out of 60 remaining Iranian ballistic missiles.
Following the attack, Jordan and Egypt declared a state of emergency. Security sources in Jordan declared that “Jordan is ready to intercept any Iranian drone that penetrates its airspace.”
Slipping through the cracks
IDF Spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in his Operational Update of April 14, 2024 that “99% of the threats launched towards Israeli territory were intercepted – a very significant strategic achievement.” When a more comprehensive analysis will be completed, making use of all relevant technical and video information, those numbers may shrink a bit – but they are still an impressive benchmark.
- One matter that has not been spotlighted, however, concerns the unsettling fact that approximately 20 Iranian missiles were not stopped by jet fighters or by anti-missile platforms. These 20 ballistic missiles hit the ground in Israel. Approximately 50% of the 130 ballistic missiles were aimed by Iran specifically at IAF bases – that would be approximately 65 out of the total of 130. After 50% of these 130 did not launch or exploded before reaching their targets, that left approximately 65 ballistic missiles (out of the original 130) tearing through the atmosphere towards Israel. So nearly one-third of the Iranian ballistic missiles which made it through the allies’ ‘obstacle course’ – these missiles landed on the soil of the Jewish state.
Here is a partial listing of five of these impact sites:
- Eight ballistic missile impacts were recorded on cell phone video, hitting the Nevatim Airbase between Arad and Beersheva
- Five ballistic missiles hit the Ramon Airbase (Iran says 7) south of Beersheva
- One ballistic missile hit at Julis base in the northern Negev.
- One ballistic missile hit a road leading up to a military base on Mount Hermon, Golan area.
- One ballistic missile landed in the Dead Sea
At the Nevatim Airbase, the missiles caused slight damage. A small crater was created beside a small building where one missile landed; an empty airplane hangar was slightly damaged; and possibly a Hercules C-130 transport plane sustained minor damage.
“Prepare plans by consultation, and make war by wise guidance” (Proverbs 20:18)
There is a military term known as BDA – Battle Damage Assessment. This is the attempt to figure out what damage has happened to one’s military forces as a result of recent clashes. For Israel to do proper BDA, some questions should be asked:
- Though Israel is considered to be top-of-the-line in technology and weapons development, it is clear that the combined powers of Israel, US, UK, France, Jordan and Saudi Arabia were not enough to present hermetic protection from Iran’s ballistic missiles. This could have cataclysmic repercussions were Iran to get hold of a nuclear weapon – whether a home-made one, or one to be found at spot prices on the open market – perhaps from North Korea or Pakistan. How can Israel be pro-active here?
- Present anti-missile systems throughout the world are still considered highly ineffective when dealing with hypersonic ballistic missiles – that is, those missiles which can reach a speed of at least Mach 5 (or five times the speed of sound). Many hypersonic ballistic missiles even go faster than that, reaching Mach 10 or even Mach 20 – that is, moving at a speed of over one kilometer per second. Yet most of these systems base their mathematics and physics on arcing vertical trajectories (where the missile drops out of the skies). Modern cutting-edge cruise and hypersonic ballistic missile ‘Star Wars’ technologies must deal not only with trajectories involving ascent and descent, but also with movement on a horizontal dimension. This is too great a challenge for most of the modern cutting-edge systems. Israel’s world-renowned ‘Iron Dome’ platform was built to take out rockets that have a regular trajectory; they cannot take out hypersonic cruise missiles or Russian KORNETs (man-portable anti-tank guided missiles), both of which can travel horizontally. Amos Yadlin, a former head of the Military Intelligence Directorate notes that “Arrow 3 and Arrow 4 are suitable for intercepting hypersonic missiles only up to a certain speed. If Iran has operational missiles beyond this speed, which is doubtful, Israel will be required to respond in a different way — pre-emptive strikes mainly.” What can Israel do to successfully develop such a counter-weapon – one which not only looks good on paper?
- Since the Iranian attack was agreed upon and the processed at the highest levels in the US State Department, the POTUS and the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, it would not be surprising to find some trickery in the immediate vicinity. In a Hebrew interview between IDF Military historian Dr. Uri Milstein and physicist and defense industry rocket and missile specialist Dr. Moti Shefer, Shefer points out that Israel is totally unprepared for an all-out hypersonic ballistic and cruise missile attack from Iran. He noted that the physical evidence available to Israeli scientists from the 20 Iranian ballistic missiles which landed on Israeli soil without exploding, reveals that none of these ballistic missiles were touched or damaged by any Israeli or American counter-measures. Their fuselages were intact. As well, the amount of explosives in each warhead was not the average amount Iranians put in (between 450-500 kg.) but a paltry 20 kg. Nir Dvori, military correspondent for Israel TV Channel 2, in a live broadcast at the site of a missile landing, said that the Iranian ballistic missiles were like “empty shells” (due to the absence of fuselage damage and the miniscule nature of explosives in the warheads). His comments were quickly removed from subsequent rebroadcasts. Dr. Shefer states that this missile attack was actually an Iranian military exercise: to see if they could succeed in getting their missiles to enter Israeli military airspace, to hit a specific target, but not to cause many casualties or great damage. This is a clear warning to the powers-that-be in Israel: “We can do this again; we can certainly fire hypersonic missiles equipped with a full payload; you don’t have the present anti-missile capabilities to stop us.” What can Israel do to counter super-power machinations and get ourselves ready for the next round, for it is surely coming?
Dr. Yigal Carmon comments in his research, saying much the same thing:
- “America coordinated the attack with Iran so that no one will be physically injured or killed. This was thanks to the highly skilled American, Israeli, British, and Jordanian air defenses. This coordination with Iran that guarantees no casualties, no injuries, was made over Israel’s head. Israel’s air force, like those of the U.S., UK, and Jordan, did a great job. They had full information about the missiles that were coming. Israel got the information from the Americans, who got the information about the what, where, and when of the air strikes from the Iranians, enabling an unfathomable 99 percent missile defense rate. The Israeli air force and air defense, together with the others, did their best, but Israel’s deterrence was lost . . . Indeed, no one was hurt, but Israel’s deterrence was struck down by the U.S.’s pre-coordination with Iran. Israel’s deterrence was sold out to save Iran’s deterrence. To retrieve it would be a painful process because, as the Iranians are threatening, the next attack will not be pre-coordinated. The worst for Israel would be to believe that the results of this night are all that Iran can achieve. They can do far more.”
“They make shrewd plans against Your people, and conspire together against Your treasured ones” (Psalm 83:3)
Daniel Greenfield is a Shillman Journalism Fellow, a columnist for the Gatestone Institute, and a brilliant and insightful writer. Here is a précis of his conclusions on this matter in his April 16, 2024 article titled ‘This Was Not the Actual Iranian Attack:’
- This was not the actual Iranian attack. This was the ‘attack’ prearranged for show between Iran and the Biden administration through backchannels. It’s an attack that allows Iran to show off that it can reach Israel . . . while not inflicting any real damage. Iran did burn up some resources doing this, but apart from the morale boost of doing it, it set out to test U.S. and Israeli defenses. And the defenses did what they were supposed to. However, had Iran actually been trying to launch a serious attack, it would have used its Hezbollah, Houthi, Iraqi and whatever is left of its Hamas proxies to saturate local air defenses.
- Hamas’s October 7 attack, planned by an Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general who was killed in an alleged Israeli strike in Damascus on April 1, carefully analyzed Israel’s border and air defenses, its infrastructure, and command and control, in search of weaknesses to exploit. And did so effectively. That is what a serious direct Iranian attack would have done. And this was not it. So what will Iran do next?
- Iran is not currently ready for a regional war and prefers to use its proxies to do its dirty work until that day comes. October 7 was an example of that, as are the Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the Iraqi Shi’ite attacks on a U.S. base in Jordan that killed three servicemembers. But Iran will do things beyond this light show, which was largely meant to reassure the Biden administration that its ‘diplomatic tools’ have successfully solved the problem. That’s an illusion that Iran has used to allow it to build up its nuclear weapons program, to sow dragon’s teeth around the region and to cut off international shipping at will.
- The Iranian regime knows that America could destroy it. It also learned under Obama that its greatest defense is convincing D.C. elites that diplomacy will successfully deescalate any conflicts with the regime. By starting a crisis and then allowing itself to be talked into standing down a little bit, before beginning the cycle again, Iran has been able to expand its sphere of influence without paying a price. It will strike more seriously, but it will do so in a way that will allow it to go on manipulating its diplomatic collaborators in D.C. and building power in the region.
Iran is known in the Middle East as a chess master, exercising deception, subterfuge and patience. This is how they are building their nuclear program, while twisting superpower leaders around their little pinky. The leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran are even more cunning than Iraqi Saddam Hussein (known as ‘the Butcher of Baghdad’ – Arabic: al Jazaar al-Baghdadi – ألجزار ألبغدادي) ever was.
It is good to remember that the God of Jacob has the last word: “YHVH nullifies the plan of nations. He frustrates the plans of peoples” (Psalm 33:10).
How should we then pray?
- Pray for Iran’s Machiavellian strategies and for joint-plots for Middle East mischief and murder to be exposed and neutralized
- Pray for the physical rescue of the approximately 129 Israeli hostages (including babies) kidnapped by Hamas, Islamic Jihad and PFLP/PLO. At this moment some hostages are being tortured, raped and starved (this based on testimonies of recently released hostages). Sadly, at least 35 of these hostages are corpses of Israeli citizens, held in cold storage by Hamas as bargaining chips
- Pray for Hamas’ cruel terror dictatorship in Gaza to be decisively shattered and for all chains broken off the Palestinians living there, and for Iran’s role in jihadi deception, dissimulation and anti-Semitism to be exposed and opposed by world leaders
- Pray that Israel’s leadership be granted justice, clarity, moral courage, discernment and divine strategies in utterly destroying the jihadi threat in all of its aspects, and for minimal loss of life for Israel’s defense forces and for those Gazans who are truly innocent
- Pray for the raising up of Ezekiel’s prophetic Jewish army throughout the earth
Your prayers and support hold up our arms and are the very practical enablement of God to us in the work He has called us to do.
In Messiah Yeshua,
Avner Boskey
Donations can be sent to: FINAL FRONTIER MINISTRIES
BOX 121971 NASHVILLE TN 37212 – 1971 USA
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